I should be watching a movie.  No, I should be doing business development and writing reviews.  No, I should procrastinate and write a blog entry on the boomers and their impact on the US healthcare system in the next 20-30 years.  Will the Boomers be the main reason the US healthcare systems goes kaboom around 2020?

Recently George Churchill and I were discussing the “big three” so many in the payer space seem to be focused on - healthcare affordability, access, and quality.  He asked me what was the “next thing” after the big three.  Volume came to mind.  While the boomer generation won’t necessarily be the driver of spending increases (see Uwe Reinhardt’s WHCCE data/presentation), one can’t ignore the fact that they will still drastically increase the need in care from 2010 onward.  The US needs to figure out the expense side of the equation, but also needs to figure out the volume side of the equation - how will it care for so many in need?  My hypothesis is - similar to that how manufacturing has moved out of the US - the boomers will get their care outside the US.  This is already happening (see recent FastCompany article), and if there is a lack throughput in the US (and/or a sacrifice in quality) the savvy boomers won’t put up with it.  Many are well financed and will likely take their money and perhaps premiums elsewhere.  Sure, it’ll scare them at first.  All unknown and new things scare most people, who wants to be the guinea pig?  But like the cell phone, it’ll become the status quo eventually.